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It has been called “The Fastest Two Minutes in Sports” and, of course, “The Run for The Roses”. The Kentucky Derby is my favorite sporting event of the year and a GREAT EXCUSE TO WEAR A SEERSUCKER SUIT!
My success in picking the actual winner has been rocky, at best. I attended my first Derby in 1993 and haven’t missed one since. For several years I doubted that I would ever cash a ticket on the winner, but that all changed in 2006 with Barbaro. Ridden by my favorite jockey, Edgar Prado, I had been pulling for Barbaro well in advance of the 132nd edition of the greatest horse race in the world.
That win snapped my 0 for 13 losing streak.
The following year brought Street Sense. I had him too. Two in a row! My fortunes had changed and I was convinced that I was poised to pick the winner each and every year from now on.
Last year, Kentucky Derby 134, brought me back down to earth. I went with Pyro. Big Brown ROLLED.
(On a side note: I went to the Belmont Stakes, convinced that I was about to see Big Brown win the first triple crown since Affirmed in 1978. That didn’t work out too well…)
This year, I am going with……
#13 - I Want Revenge
I Want Revenge, coincidentally, has the same connections as Big Brown. Even though that fact alone makes me nervous (two years in a row for the same ownership team?), I still think he is just too good.
The young hotshot of Animal Planet’s “Jockeys” show, Joe Talamo, takes the reigns in the biggest race of his life.
Why I think he will win
He has the highest lifetime Beyer speed figure (113) in the field, by far.
The horse had an incredibly difficult trip in its last race, the Wood Memorial, but was able to post and impressive last to first win. This experience should come in handy in a 20 horse field that is traditionally crowded around the turns.
The Louisville Courier Journal came up with an interesting predictor of Derby success several years ago. In a horse’s final 1 1/8 mile prep race, he should run the final eighth in under 13 seconds and the final 3/8 in under 38 seconds. This is a measure of stamina. In the Wood, I Want Revenge ran his last 1/8 in 11.91 and the last 3/8 in 36.37. Only Hold Me Back ran both of those distances faster in his final prep.
I Want Revenge posted a BULLET workout (fastest of the day) on Tuesday, working 4 furlongs in 41.2 seconds - the fastest of 49 other horses.
Who I am fearful of
#16 - Pioneer of the Nile
Career best Beyer of 96. Not fast enough?? Trainer Baffert has won three Derbies and he is talking a good game. Never raced on dirt before. Can he handle the Churchill Downs dirt track? Garrett Gomez, the best jockey in America, chose this horse over Dunkirk.
#15 - Dunkirk
Only three lifetime races. But Big Brown was lightly raced too. Look how that turned out? How long can trainer Todd Pletcher’s drought at the Derby last? Edgar Prado is onboard. I hate to bet against MY MAN! His Tomlinson Figure for 1 ¼ miles is only 281. I Want Revenge is 331 and Pioneer Of The Nile is 328. The higher the better.
#6 - Friesan Fire
Larry Jones charge comes out of a good post position (6) and is fresh after posting a bullet workout of his own on Monday. This was very similar to two other horses Larry Jones trained for the Derby recently: Hard Spun - second in 2007, and Eight Belles - second in 2008. He has shown the ability to run well on an off track. Could it be soft on Derby Day?
#7 - Papa Clem
Could he be peaking at the right time? Winner of the Arkansas Derby. Upward Beyer speed figure trend.
Post time is 6:24 (coverage begins at 4 pm on NBC).
Hopefully, at 6:26 I will be enjoying a tall frosty Mint Julep while celebrating the victory of I Want Revenge.
UPDATE
I Want Revenge scratched from the Kentucky Derby early on Saturday morning with some slight lameness. My official Derby pick then became Dunkirk (at about 6-1 odds). Mine That Bird pulled off a MAJOR UPSET at over 50-1 odds….on to Baltimore and the Preakness.
As co-founder of Chappell, Mayfield & Associates, Cass offers expertise in financial planning, wealth accumulation, retirement planning, insurance planning, business continuation planning, and employee benefits.
Cass launched his financial planning career as an agent for Prudential Financial in 1996, and later, a manager in the company’s financial services division. Since then, Cass has earned the CFP®, CLU, and ChFC designations, reflecting his commitment to excellence in investment decision-making and financial planning. He also holds a B.S. in Management from Georgia Tech.
Cass has lived in Atlanta since 1992 and is married to Alison.
I love all the holidays from valentines to Christmas. I also put up decorations for every one of the holidays. Since I’m alone I spend a lot of time decorating for special occasions. I’m planning to decorate like crazy this year for the children here. I really plan on getting a lot of accessories for the house and front lawn to make halloween extra special. I decided to check online and see if I could get any creative ideas. I ran across a halloween website that carries everything from decorations to pets halloween costumes. I fell in love with the giant spider they have there. Most of my porch would be covered with that thing. There’s quite a few props, but I really like the crawling hand. They had some pretty eerie looking costumes I could wear for halloween. Dressing up for halloween would really be a big hit with the kids around here.
Since I don’t have any kids, I’m going to dress my little dog in one of the amazing little costumes for pets they have online. I’m surprised they make such cute little pet costumes for dogs. I checked out a few of them and really thought the little canine cowboy was one of the cutest. The prison dog costume was really cute too. How do they think up these ideas for pet costumes? I know I definitely want to pick out a cute little halloween pet costume for Mikey. I really liked the biker dog and pirate costumes. But, it’s hard to pick one when you have so many outfits to choose from. While I thought it over, I started picking out my decoration choices and a few props that I thought would be great for the porch and yard. Of course, I got the giant spider. I have a big enough front porch that I think it would work out great. I also ordered a bloody door cover and some decorations for my windows. On my porch will be a table with a candy bowl and the crawling hand I ordered will be right next to it. I ordered some grave markers online to display in my front yard. Last year I bought a coffin and skeleton that I’m adding to the halloween yard display. On my porch banister I plan to put spiders, webs and have a few bats hanging around. I’m pretty sure I have all I need for the halloween decorations.
After getting that taken care of, I went back to choosing a pets halloween costume for Mikey. I’m getting the little tuxedo and derby looking hat for my dog, Mikey. The bow tie and cape that comes with it is really adorable. This little costume will make him look even more precious than he already is. The selection for halloween pet costumes is super. You can dress your little dog in so many different costumes. Seeing all the little pups in different costumes was a treat in itself. After my order arrived I had to try Mikeys’ little halloween outfit on him. The tux and the cute little black hat looked adorable on him. Mikey didn’t like the new me when I tried on my halloween outfit. After I convinced him that it was still me, he was alright.
I was completely satisfied with the costumes and the house decorations I ordered. I could hardly wait to decorate my house and yard with all these fabulous accessories. I even found some cd’s with spooky music and sounds for halloween. I thought that would add to the atmosphere of halloween night. Some of the neighborhood kids want to help me decorate. This will be one of the best halloween nights I’ve had in a long time.
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Part 6 of the series “First Lady Hunts a Derby Hat for Charity.” Watch the whole series and find out why Kentucky First Lady, Jane Beshear, is so popular and influential! Why, you can see that little girl inside her pop out, playing in her childhood attic, dressing up, planning big things; and, then you realize shes doing it in real life for charity! She will give the Derby hat to the Horses and Hope charity drawing held by Nitro of Frankfort, a ladies boutique with a big heart. Go to the poshest boutique in downtown Frankfort to register to win the Derby hat! Or visit vicariously by watching this video series! Donate to Horses and Hope. Our First Lady loves working for great causes for Kentucky like Horses and Hope which helps equine industry workers with health issues like cancer. Go Google “Horses and Hope Kentucky.” Y’all be sure to watch part 7 next!